Forecasting the Future: A Modern Economics Challenge

Bridgewater studies the cause-and-effect forces that shape economies and markets, turning that understanding into data-driven algorithms that adapt as the world changes. Their goal is to build a system that can both interpret the global economy and guide smart investment decisions—balancing big-picture trends like debt cycles with precise forecasts like interest rate movements.

Funding Information

• The top 5 Winner(s) will receive $25,000 and an employment or internship opportunity at Bridgewater, pending successful completion of its interview requirements.

Eligibility Criteria

• Open to anyone and anywhere.
• Participants must be 18 years of age or older.
• Participants acknowledge and agree that Sponsor and Promoter have the sole discretion to determine the eligibility of any Participant and may, without any liability but without any obligation to do so, remove, exclude or disqualify a Participant, if Sponsor or Promoter believes such
• Participant violated these terms, submits an application that is fraudulent, incomplete, inappropriate, unacceptable or otherwise poses a risk to the Challenge, or to Sponsor or Promoter.
• The Challenge is void where prohibited.
• Sponsor and Promoter reserve the right to prohibit or limit the participation of any Participant who is located in or affiliated with any country, territory, entity or person that is subject to any sanctions, embargoes, restrictions, or prohibitions by the United States government or any other applicable authority, or that poses a high risk of violating any applicable laws, regulations, or policies, or of compromising the integrity or reputation of Sponsor, Promoter or the Challenge.
• Decisions on matters relating to the eligibility and participation of any Participant are final.

Ineligibility Criteria

• Employees of Sponsor and Promoter and their affiliates, subsidiaries, and agencies, and members of their immediate family or persons living in the same household are not eligible to participate.

Application Requirements

• Part 1: Your Forecasts
  • Goal: Create a minimum of 20 binary forecasts (yes/no outcomes) with assigned probabilities.
  • Length: Each forecast must be one sentence and have clear, objective resolution criteria. No page limit.
  • Timeframes: Cover short and long-term timeframes (1 to 10 years)
  • Focus: Focus on well-calibrated predictions—your probabilities should match outcomes over time. All forecasts must clearly relate to Modern Mercantilism.
• Part 2: Your Framework and Holistic Synthesis
  • Goal: Present your big-picture view of how Modern Mercantilism will shape the next decade.
  • Framework: Build a coherent framework that ties together your forecasts into a broader understanding.
  • Explain: Explain the key cause-and-effect dynamics you believe will drive global events.
  • Reference Forecasts: Reference a few of your most impactful forecasts from Part 1 to illustrate your thinking.
  • Focus: Focus on clarity and structure—this is about synthesis, not justifying each individual forecast.
  • Visual Support: You may include charts or data to support your framework.
  • Length: Maximum of 3 pages
• Part 3: Analytical Appendix
  • Back up your predictions with clear reasoning, relevant evidence, and thoughtful analysis.
  • How to Use This Section is Up to You: Use this space your way—whether it’s to explain the reasoning behind your forecasts, share models that support your views, or dive deeper into the most important parts of your analysis.
  • Length: They recommend 10 pages or less (but they will never stop reading analysis if it’s great).

For more information, visit Bridgewater.